Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Papa don't preach...

The responsible media made us aware of the airline tycoons' visit to the capital, on Monday. Media was probably right too, in reporting the objective of their visit. But, as always, there could have been more on the agenda, which media skilfully camouflaged, for example the "pink slip issues of Jet". After all Messrs. Mallya & Goel may always decide to cut the media lifelines (ad revenues), if displeased!
It's interesting to note how, like always, the geo-political economics (US & India, China excused) has again aligned itself to the impending political activity round the corner. Right now we find almost all major events having irrefutable links with or origins from the politically motivated fields. That's normal though.
My limited education (in terms of recognised suffixes) has always been a great hurdle in accepting things the way they are. I guess my brain was not washed properly at all. What a pity...
This handicapped lump of grey-matter keeps throwing up silly questions about happenings around the globe & our own country, with unflailing persistence.
For example, why are the leaders (Bussiness & Politicos) so worried about the "aviation" sector? Is it really such a make-or-break factor for India's development? What is the exact contribution of this sector, to the government's kitty? Given the ATF dues, inability to pay development charges, reddening bottomlines etc., I would guess it's not very significant. If we factor in the subsidy doled out to NACIL, over the years, it may actually be a bleeding sore!
However, more pertinent is another related question. Hypothesising that the aviation industry is building "critical" infrastructure for our about-to-boom industries, may we get some honest data about the contribution of aviation, to all businesses? I mean, let's have a simple comparison between the established logistics infrastructure modes like land-traffic (roads & Commercial vehicles), railways, waterways & airlines. Shouldn't be a difficult exercise with so many expert-commiteed ranking exercises across media!
On top of that spreadsheet let's juxtapose the shares of these same modes, in human transportation.
My hunch (handicapped..., remember?) tells me that railways & roadways will add up to more than 70% contributors!
Somehow I find very few of my friends, relatives, acquaintances (possibly given my middle-class background & circle) flying on a regular basis. Few who do, are generally on the expense account. Many had "tried" when the aviation sector was in the NGO / Charitable mode, but reverted soon thereafter!
However, the NGOs, I mean the budding airlines did paint rosy pictures, managed to fool the Boeings & Airbuses with their "record-setting" orderbooks, got deep-pocketed "3 or 4 lettered conglomerates" to sink thousands of crores in building world-standard airports and so on so forth.
It's another issue to find investment bankers neck-deep in such project fundings, or to find hitherto unknown entrepreneurs setting up "training academies" to cater to this "projected boom" and even to count millions of parents who have invested their lives' savings to send their children to these mushrooming academies.
This glamorous business has underpinnings (if any) which are strikingly similar to the Retail Industry & to some extent the BPO industry!
In a country like India, where it still takes a few days for the aam janta to travel back to their hometowns on vacations or where getting back home after office is still a huge chore, my limited intelligence adamantly refuses to accept such glorious industry projections!
I must be wrong....isn't it?

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